We Will Lose the Next War, Why AI for Acquisition is Critical in GPC

The cascading consequences of our decisions—from the “Last Supper” defense industry consolidation in the 1990s to the hollowing out of the Small Business Community (SBC)—have left our industrial base structurally unprepared for the challenges of modern warfare. Even with the increasing participation of startups and venture-backed companies like Anduril and Shield AI, the second and third-order capabilities of our industrial base are sorely lacking. We cannot rely on large companies in the next fight, if we had to activate the economy the way we did during World War II, we would max out the large primes in the first three months and be left wanting with empty magazines.

Here's the problem, the entire acquisition process shifted towards consolidated action. The wholesale shift toward large, multiple-award, indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contracts—contracts that are largely out of reach for small businesses—makes it structurally infeasible for us to keep pace in a great power conflict. These massive contracts favor established defense giants, sidelining the small and innovative companies that are crucial for a resilient and responsive supply chain. The shift helped address the decline in contracting personnel, while those sidelined small companies died, and have been dying for decades.

The solution to these challenges is straightforward: to reinvigorate the small business industrial base, which is inherently necessary to support the and diversify from the large business industrial base, we must create real opportunities for small businesses. We need to move a major portion of acquisition away from oversized contracts that small businesses struggle to compete for and transitioning to smaller, more agile contracting methods. The problem is this shift necessitates more government personnel to manage and support an increased number of smaller contracts—a persistent challenge given workforce constraints.

Here’s where the relationship becomes clear: by adopting artificial intelligence in acquisition processes, with intelligent and intuitive workflows, we can empower our existing workforce to handle a greater volume of acquisitions efficiently.

Leveraging AI and automation will enable us to support the small business base more effectively, which in turn bolsters the large business base necessary for large-scale conflict. Our future readiness depends on modernizing our acquisition processes. Embracing these technologies is not just an option; it’s a necessity to ensure our industrial base is robust, responsive, and capable of meeting the demands of future conflicts.

Without these changes, we risk facing adversaries better prepared and more agile than we are—a risk we cannot afford. The time to act is now, before the next conflict tests the very foundations of our national security infrastructure.